Bitcoin Could Surge to $232000 or Higher as Cycle Reversal Confirms New Bull Market, Jesse Myers Projects

Bitcoin may be in the opening phases of a multi-year bull cycle that could carry the cryptocurrency between $232000 and $464,000, according to on-chain market analyst and Once in a Species author Jesse Myers. Pointing to a decisive rebound above the short-term holder cost basis and cyclical patterns mirroring the 2022-2023 bottoming structure, Myers argued that the market has transitioned out of its prolonged consolidation phase into a sustained upward expansion.

The commentary comes as Bitcoin reclaims technical trendlines that historically separated late-stage accumulation from macro bull runs.

30-Second TL;DR

• Cycle Confirmation: Jesse Myers identified Bitcoin’s faster-than-anticipated reclaim of the short-term holder cost basis as confirmation that the $64,000 level established a cycle floor.
• On-Chain Precedent: The short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH-MVRV) indicator completed a seven-month recovery matching the bottoming phase seen before the 2023-2025 bull market.
• Price Projections: Applying past bull cycle multiples suggests a conservative 4x surge toward $232,000, with an 8x replication pointing to $464,000.
• Macro Catalysts: Supply tightening, sidelined capital re-entry, and speculative positioning ahead of the 2028 Bitcoin halving are expected to sustain the trend.

STH-MVRV Recovery: Replicating the 2023 Structural Breakout

The foundation of Myers’ outlook relies on Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), an on-chain indicator comparing Bitcoin’s prevailing spot price against the aggregate acquisition cost of recent network buyers (wallets holding coins for 155 days or fewer).

The metric functions as a gauge of short-term trader sentiment and profitability:

• The 2022 Precedent: During the 2022 bear market, the STH-MVRV bottomed in June and climbed steadily for seven months before Bitcoin decisively crossed above the short-term holder cost basis in January 2023. That crossover remained in net-positive territory for more than 80% of the subsequent 2.5-year cycle.
• The Current Setup: Myers noted an identical timeline unfolding across 2026: the STH-MVRV metric established a cyclical low in February and spent seven months consolidating before Bitcoin broke out above the short-term holder cost basis in late August.
• Cycle Reversal: Reclaiming this aggregate break-even threshold historically relieves overhead sell pressure, as recent market entrants move into unrealized profit and transition into long-term accumulation behavior.

Declaring the end of the defensive accumulation phase, Myers summarized the technical breakout: “Welcome to the new bull market”.

Historical Multiples and the Path to $232000-$464,000

Myers’ baseline model frames the latest on-chain breakout as the inception point of a broader 2026-2029 bull market. While exact terminal cycle peaks remain variable, historical expansion multiples from cycle floors provide a framework for future upside:

• Conservative Scenario (4x Multiplier): In previous market turnarounds, Bitcoin posted exponential gains once structural bottoms were verified. A conservative fourfold multiple calculated from the recent cycle base puts Bitcoin’s terminal projection near $232,000.
• Historical Parity Scenario (8x Multiplier): In the preceding cycle, Bitcoin rallied approximately eightfold from its macro bottom. A full replication of that expansion rate would translate to a price target approaching $464,000.

Bitcoin Market Cycles: 2022-2025 vs. 2026-2029 Setup

On-Chain / Cycle Metric	2022-2025 Cycle Structure	2026-2029 Cycle Setup (Current)
STH-MVRV Low	June 2022 Bottom	February 2026 Bottom
Base Recovery Duration	~7 Months of Structural Healing	~7 Months of Accumulation & Rebound
Cost Basis Reclaim	January 2023 Breakout	Late August 2026 Reclaim
Cycle Multiplier Achieved	~8x from Bear Market Trough	Projected 4x to 8x Target Band
Target Price Band	Cycle High ~$100,000+	$232,000 to $464,000
Primary Macro Catalyst	2024 Halving & Spot ETF Inflows	Institutional Re-allocation & 2028 Halving

Sidelined Capital and the 2028 Halving Horizon

The model identifies two major liquidity drivers expected to support higher valuations over the coming 24 to 36 months:

• Front-Running the 2028 Halving: Bitcoin’s programmatic block reward reductions continue to compress available market supply. Myers noted that institutional balance sheets and macro funds frequently begin accumulating 12 to 18 months ahead of scheduled halving dates to front-run the expected issuance shock.
• FOMO and Momentum Re-entry: Prolonged sideways ranges often drive retail and conservative institutions onto the sidelines. As Bitcoin maintains structural support above the short-term holder cost basis, upward momentum forces inactive capital to re-enter the market to avoid missing broader trend continuation.

As Myers concluded, “If you thought Bitcoin was dead, or you were hoping to buy BTC lower… now might be the time to re-evaluate”.

Market Perspective

While predictive models illustrate theoretical upside using historical multiples, realized performance will remain linked to broader macroeconomic liquidity, global interest rate trajectories, and continuous capital absorption from spot exchange-traded products. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s decisive recovery above its short-term holder realization price establishes a foundational on-chain baseline for the next phase of the digital asset’s cycle.

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